Over
view of this scholarly task on world mortality trends based on how four A.R.
Omran`s of the Epidemiological Transition Theory models namely, western model, Accelerated
variant of the classical model, Delayed model or Contemporary model, The transition
variant of the delayed model, which
cover regions ; Asia, Latin America, sub Sahara Africa, Oceania’s, western
Europe, eastern Europe, Russia, Japan, new Zealand, china, Taiwan, UK, Poland,,
honking, Chile, at least form the early 1950`s to 2030 and generally global
mortality show the tendencies of declining year after years, also covered by
charts, graphs and statistical figures on males and female genders , and common
killer diseases are included in this assignment
Definition of key terms
Oxford
Advanced Dictionary, (2014:1137) defined Population as all people who live in a
particular area, city, or country. A particular group of people or animals
living in a particular area; Population structure means composition s by ages,
sex, status, and education in a population
Kirk,
(1996 p 7.) mortality is the cause of death and the rate of death normally
measured by crude death rates, expressed per thousand populations in a calendar
year, either from all causes or specific cause of death
Transition
is the process of changing, shifting from one status, and level to another. It
also involves transferring things to place to place, Kirk, (1996:7)
Theory
is the statement or an hypothesis that explain about particular topic, events
concerning lives of the people, it tries
to suggest some strategies on how to address the current issues which is
not solved
UN
report, (2016:17) defined epidemiology Transition Theory as the shift from
acute infections and deficiency diseases caused by the lack of some potential nutrients
to an affluence condition characterized by non communicable and communicable
diseases. It is the distribution of diseases in human development and
determines distributions chiefly by the use of statistics which focus more on
people rather than individual people and looks retrospectively
Epidemiology
is the study of health and diseases patterns, determinants and consequences in
population group. It incorporate the scientific capacity to analyze, social,
economic, heath – care technological and environment changes related to health
out comes
UN,
(2010:14) epidemiological Transition is the pattern of change in the cause –
specific mortality risks over time that has been observed in many of the
world`s populations. It is characterized by initial declines in the rates of
death due to communicable diseases (CMDs) in the early stages of the transition
which are followed by subsequent reductions in mortality attributable to non
communicable diseases (NCDs) in the advanced stages of transitions
Epidemiological
Transition accounts for the replacement of infectious diseases over time due to
expanded public health and sanitation
The
basic models that applied by many scholars to address the world mortality
trends includes; the classical western
model, the accelerated variant of the classical model, the delayed or
contemporary model and the transitional of the delayed model
Major
world regions that will be highlighted in this paper are; Europe
(Czechoslovakia to Siberia), Latin America and the Caribbean, China, India,
Middle Eastern crescent (Middle Eastern, North Africa and Pakistan), Asia,
Sub-Sahara Africa and Central Republic former of soviet union of Russia
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The following is the summary on how the basic models of the epidemiologic transition theory applied to summarize the world mortality trend by major regions and population compositions
The classical western model, as cited in Mesle. et.al, (2005:21) the model
explain mortality trend in Western Europe traced back over 200 years ago. He cemented
that Western Europe had higher death rates of 130 per thousand but changed
within short period of time up to 10 death rates for 1000 population. The
changes was the results of advancement in medical, technologies, and
modernization mortality trend in this
region considered age, and sex where by males cloud live about 66 years, and
females 72.5 years from 1995 to 2000
From
the map above shows areas covered by the research were along France, United
Kingdom, Japan, Sri Lanka, Poland, New Zealand, Chile and Russia
World
Health Organization(WHO), (2012:21) explained that the recent decades have
witnessed tremendous advancement in health and survival throughout the world
and by2012 western regions successes to reduce mortality levels in greater
extents and their lives expectance jumped to 80 years excluding Eastern Europe
The
model apply to get the results within the arena of international health
planning, formulations of WHO`s position on family planning. The classical
model used by the USA government as an aspect of American population policy in
the 1990`s regardless Omrans was an Egyptian, Weisz, et.al, (2010 p, 35). The
UN report show that currently, mortality rates in western region is caused by
both communicable diseases (CMDs) and non communicable diseases (NCMDs) and
injuries. These diseases includes heart dieses, obesity, High Blood pressure
(BP), and strokes; however currently mortality rates in western region fall
down due the modernization, advancement in medical care, services, intensive
family planning, laws, education, and economic and social development
Accelerated variant of the classical model this model commonly applied to summarize mortality trends in the regions like Japan, Eastern Europe, Moscow- Russia, in some extents these regions shared traits with Western Europe`s countries like UK, France, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and Poland. UN, (2012) report identified common diseases like cardiovascular and Manmade diseases (p,19) Group II causes of death, which comprise NCDs, were responsible for 80 per cent of deaths in the “more developed regions, excluding Eastern Europe”
Group III causes of
disease includes injuries 7% of the mortality rates in these regions especially
in the advanced stages the demographic and epidemiologic transition [page14]
Source: www.unz.com & www.worldhealthorganization
Therefore
accelerated variant of the classical model suit more on analyzing mortality
trends on the regions from the graph above
Delayed model or Contemporary model this provides enough details on the Sub – Saharan
Africa. It gives as a summary of mortality trend in these regions from o – 5
years. WHO report those child five years, and most of the population affected
by HIV / AIDs including Tunisia.
The
report shows 61.0% of mortality is due to communicable diseases as well as
maternal, perinatal and nutrition conditions, UN, (200:14)
UN
and WHO (2012) explain that if mortality rate due to group I cause were to fall
to equal those in the longest – lived populations, the regional would achieve
17% years increase life expectancy at birth from 55 years to 75 years across
five regions, the gains to had from a reduction of mortality range from 4 years
in north Africa to 23 years in south Africa (P,18)
I
n both South and Eastern Africa , HIV /
AIDs pandemic was the leading cause of
death and the gap in life expectance compare to longest – lived population.
Causing fall in survival of 14.2 years and pay 5.3 years, the major summarized
causes of mortality in the region were pneumonia, diarrhea, and perinatal
diseases were the top five agencies of death
However the region tried much to reduced much
mortality trend, especially after advancement medical services, technologies,
nutrition necessity, education, now family planning methods which are currently
applied by many youth like the uses of condom
The transition variant of the delayed model this analyze the mortality trend in developed regions like Honkong, Brazil, South Africa, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and some parts of
Latin
America and the Caribbean. These regions have its own unique epidemiologic
risks profiles in both Caribbean and South America.
Mortality
rate in this region caused by Non communicable diseases NCDs for ½ % of the 18
years total survival, Group I diseases 35% (CMDs) including HIV / AIDs
Central
America faced by diabetes and nutrition deficiencies, and if all these could be
checked mortality rates could fall and rise lives over 77 years. Omran, (1971)
cemented that 16% death by injuries, excess mortality due to homicides,
pneumonia, and suicides.
To
reduce mortality rates South America, central, tiger states, Latin America and
Caribbean region could achieve 0 – 6 years of life expectancies, West Asia
reduced mortality and gains 0.9 years life expectancy, Eastern Europe 5.9 years
archived life expectancy at birth and reduced mortality from heart diseases to
equal to that of Western Europe, (UN & WHO, 2012:18)
Shortening my surveying of the
world mortality trends, in relation to
A.R. Omrans models of epidemiologic transition theory see the chart below
showing or summarizing the world mortality trends from 2006 to 2030
Therefore the world mortality trend as discussed from
various scholars like Omran, Lopez, and some internet websites show that there
is a change which caused by improvement of social, economic, health, education,
and food provision. However the changes in mortality world patterns are not
similarly across eight regions: Sub Saharan Africa still running behind, Latin
America, while developed countries reached far compare to other regions to
reduce mortality rate
References
Christopher and Murray (nd) Mortality by cause for eight region world:
Global Burden of Disease study. Cambridge: Cambridge
university press
Kath.
et.al, (2005) world m Mortality 1950 – 2000:
divergence replaces convergence from late 1980s.
New York: New York publishers
Lopez,
A.D., Mathers, C. D, (2006) measuring the
Global Burden of Disease and Epidemiologic Transition:
2002 – 2030. UK: The University of Queensland & Horston
Kathleen,
(2006) dying to make a fresh start:
Mortality and Health Transition in a new South Africa.
South Africa: Johannesburg university press
Mesle.
et.al, (2005) Epidemiologic transition
Theory exception. Paris: Rome publications
Milbank Quarterly (2005). A multidisciplinary Journal of population Health and Health policy: the epidemiologic transition: A theory of
epidemiologic population changes .pp.
1-5.
Omran A.R (1971). The epidemiologic transition: A theory of the epidemiology of population change. USA: Milbank
memorial Fund Quarterly. Vol. 49. No 4 pp 509-538.
Robinson, K, (2005) Applying Epidemiologic Transition Theory to Emerging Antibiotic Resistances University of Tennessee.
Utk: education publishers
Unknown, (2016) Global
Epidemiology of chronic diseases the Epidemiologic Transition. USA. New York Inc
UN, (2016) World
perspectives report on world mortality Trends. New York: New York Inc
Weisz, G. and Olszyanko, (2010) Theory of Epidemiologic Transition: theory of a citation classic. Canada: University of
Cambridge
Wollenswinkel – Van, J (1998) Epidemiologic Transition in the Netherland. Judith wallen Publishers
Unknown, (2014) Oxford
Advanced Leaner`s Dictionary Level.USA: Oxford university press
WHO, (2012) World
Mortality Trend. USA. WHO Publisher Inc
Internet Web sites
sources
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